1 / Revealing risk preferences: Evidence from Turkey’s 2023 Earthquake - 2024

Authors: Emily Quiroga and Michael Tanner

Abstract: The study on risk preferences and its potential changes amid natural catastrophes has been subject of recent study, yet produced contradictory findings. An often proposed explanation specifically distinguishes between the opposite effect of realized and unrealized losses on risk preferences. Moreover, higher-order risk preferences and its relation to post-disaster behaviors remain unexplored, despite potential theoretical implications. We address these gaps in the literature by conducting experiments with 600 individuals post-Turkey’s 2023 catastrophic earthquake, specifically heavily affected individuals who are displaced, those who are not and a control group. Results indicate higher risk-taking in heavily affected individuals when compared to unaffected individuals. Our results are specifically driven by affected females. We find no pre-existing differences in risk preferences between earthquake and control areas using 2012 data. Within the heavily affected group of individuals, higher house damage—our proxy for realized losses—increases risk aversion, with total destruction of a house inducing even higher aversion. Regarding higher-order risk preferences for individuals heavily affected
by the earthquake, we find that prudence is positively associated with self-protective behaviors after the earthquake, specifically internal migration and/or displacement. While precautionary savings shows initially no correlation to prudence, a positive association emerges when considering that prudence is also related to occupational choices, with individuals with stable incomes and who save being more prudent. Our results contribute insights into how disasters influence risk preferences, specifically aiming to address contradictory findings in the literature, while presenting novel evidence on the relationship
between prudence and post-natural disaster behaviors.

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Link of the draft paper: Here

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2 / Beyond Fishing: The Value of Maritime Cultural Heritage in Germany - 2024

Author: Emily Quiroga
Abstract: The importance of maritime heritage in providing benefits such as a sense of place and identity has been widely discussed. However, there remains a lack of comprehensive quantitative analysis, particularly regarding monetary valuation and its impact on people’s preferences. In this study, I present the results of a choice experiment that evaluates the value of cultural heritage associated with shrimp fishing through seafood consumption preferences in Germany. Additionally, I investigate people’s attitudes toward cultural heritage and examine how these attitudes affect their stated preferences. I find that these attitudes are significantly stronger in towns where local fishermen led a
prominent awareness campaign on fishing culture during the study period. Moreover, I observe a positive willingness to pay for a cultural heritage attribute in shrimp dishes, which varies depending on individuals’ attitudes toward cultural heritage.

3 / A Framework to Quantify
Adaptation to Multiple Drivers

Authors: Emily Quiroga and Benjamin Blanz
Abstract: We develop an analytical framework to assess the adaptations in a coupled ecological-economic system and apply it to a bio-economic model. Our framework allows us to quantify the impact of multiple drivers on a coupled ecological-economic system, while distinguishing between adaptation and sensitivities to positive and negative exposures. This distinction allows us to differentiate between drivers that improve and decrease well-being. Our findings provide insight into how to focus resources to counteract negative or enhance positive impacts. We apply this framework to a bio-economic model
calibrated to the North Sea flatfish fishery. We quantify the adaptations, sensitivities and total impact of fishers’ profits to multiple drivers and identify among which of them fishers adapt the most. We also identify the effect of fishers adaptation to each driver on the quantities of fish offered in the market. This work forms a bridge between the multidisciplinary area of adaptability and the bio-economic modelling domain, increasing the understanding and knowledge regarding the measure of adaptation.