1/ The Effect of Catastrophic Loss on Risk Preferences and Protective Behaviors:
Evidence from Turkey’s 2023 Earthquake

Authors: Emily Quiroga and Michael Tanner

Abstract: This paper examines how catastrophic losses during natural disasters influence individual risk preferences, prudence, and post-disaster behaviors such as migration and savings. We rely on original field data collected after the 2023 earthquake in Turkey, the most destructive in the country’s history. We exploit exogenous variation in housing damage to test whether realized losses affect risk preferences and to examine whether prudence predicts self-protective behaviors. We use incentivized experimental
tasks to elicit risk preferences and prudent behavior with a sample of 600 individuals. Our findings show that individuals who experienced catastrophic losses become more risk averse, while those with minimal damage display increased risk-taking. This heterogeneity supports predictions consistent with the mechanism of reference point updating from prospect theory. We also find that prudence and risk aversion are positively linked to migration. In post-disaster contexts, migration appears to function as a self-protective decision, as the riskier choice may be to remain in place. Prudence is also associated with precautionary savings, once stable occupational choices are considered. This study contributes to our understanding of how individuals respond under extreme uncertainty and catastrophic losses, and how the environment jointly shapes preferences and responses.

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Status: In Revision at The European Economic Review
Link of the draft paper: Here

2 / A Framework to QuantifyAdaptation to Multiple Drivers

Authors: Emily Quiroga and Benjamin Blanz
Abstract: We develop an analytical framework to assess the adaptations in a coupled ecological-economic system and apply it to a bio-economic model. Our framework allows us to quantify the impact of multiple drivers on a coupled ecological-economic system, while distinguishing between adaptation and sensitivities to positive and negative exposures. This distinction allows us to differentiate between drivers that improve and decrease well-being. Our findings provide insight into how to focus resources to counteract negative or enhance positive impacts. We apply this framework to a bio-economic modelcalibrated to the North Sea flatfish fishery. We quantify the adaptations, sensitivities and total impact of fishers’ profits to multiple drivers and identify among which of them fishers adapt the most. We also identify the effect of fishers adaptation to each driver on the quantities of fish offered in the market. This work forms a bridge between the multidisciplinary area of adaptability and the bio-economic modelling domain, increasing the understanding and knowledge regarding the measure of adaptation.

​Link of the draft paper: Here

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1. Integrated Multidimentional Index of Sustainable Diets: A Systematic Review
Status: In Design  
2. Recovering Sea meadows in Japan: A Discrete Choice Experiment to Design Policy
Status: In Design